A Brief Introduction to Fashion Forecasting
Trend Forecasts, also known as Predictives, are reports that predict the trends for each season. They are generally released twice per year, to forecast the Fall/Winter and Spring/Summer trends. Trend Forecasts are used by many fashion designers, from those with small operations to those who work for the biggest chain stores, and you can see the influence of the forecasts on the runway and in the stores. Forecasts are released about 18 months in advance of each season, so that designers have time to come up with their own interpretations of the trends, as well as to manufacture and market their lines. The reports are available for a variety of markets, such as women's wear, knitwear, men's, children's, lingerie, and shoes.
Trend forecasts and reports are created by companies that specialize in predicting and reporting on the trends. Most trend forecasts include several themes that dictate the colors and styles for the season. The trend forecasting companies develop these themes by considering everything that’s going on in the world right now. They look at the street scene and current runway shows, and they look at what’s going in retail. They consider more than just fashion though, as they look at the current state of politics, the economy, and what’s going on in other creative industries.
Once they’ve developed their theme ideas, they present the prominent colors within each theme, and illustrate some of the fashions through the use of flat sketches and silhouettes. Silhouettes show the garments on the body, and flat sketches are a more technical sketch that shows gives the designer an idea of how the garment might be constructed.
These reports are not cheap, although some may be purchased fairly easily online or through specialty bookstores. The information is so valuable that the publishers usually have very strict licensing agreements that prohibit any kind of reproduction, including what might normally be considered “fair use.” Here are a couple of examples to illustrate the price of these reports. Fashion Box is available for purchase on Amazon.com for $1,900 per year. Pecler’s Tops & Co. will cost you $4,000 per year. In both cases you receive a total of two reports, one for spring and one for fall. But those aren’t even the highest priced. Some forecasts can cost $14,000 per year or more.
Another type of report used by the fashion industry is called a Trend Report. These reports don’t forecast the trends, but rather they analyze what is going on right now. Trends West and The Tobe Report are two examples of Trend Reports. Primarily, they’re used by the retail industry to keep abreast of trends they should be stocking.
Trend forecasts and trend reports are both very valuable tools in the fashion industry. There is a financial incentive to follow them, since every designer and retailer wants to be a part of the next big money-making trend. These reports can give perspective and focus to designers who want to make sure their clothing is marketable to a wide range of people, and not simply what they themselves would wear. The designer still plays a creative roll, taking what they see in the forecasts and turning it into something better, with their own unique touch.